Gallup: This holiday season may be the best in years

(This post originally appeared on The Washington Post)

If you’re in retail you likely rely on holiday sales to generate the lion’s share of your annual profits. The National Retail Federation says that sales during this period account for as much as 30 percent of a merchant’s annual sales–with the average at about 20 percent. So the holidays are very, very important.

Well, there’s good news. Gallup predicts that this holiday season may be the best in years.

Data from the research organization indicates that consumers plan on spending about 16 percent more on holiday gifts this year–$906 per person, which is up from $785 last year. Spending predictions are at their highest levels in a decade. Only in 2014 were actual sales gains over the prior year more than five percent.

More than a third of the 1,028 adults over 18 who responded in early October said they would be spending more than $1,000 this year. Six percent don’t plan on spending anything. The largest share of people (65 percent) say their spending will be about the same this year. But for the first time since 2000 the same amount of people that say they’ll be spending more as those whoplan to spend less. Gallup says this is unusual because normally the majority of respondents say they’ll be spending less.

“Consumers are exhibiting an unusual willingness to admit that their overall spending will be on par with or higher than a year ago,” Gallup said in its release.

The company warns that sentiments could change as the buying seasons progresses. The study has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

Confidence in the economy, willingness to take on more credit card debt, optimism about policy actions coming from Washington and a better personal financial situation are all offered as reasons for the rosy forecast.

The takeaway: if you’re a merchant, make sure your inventories are stocked, your store is staffed and your coffee pot is full. It could be a busy couple of months!